Anyone have the odds on how long it will take for this to be circumvented?
Depends, but immediately for either case.
A) Mostly likely. The ISP blocks DNS resolution for that domain, directing users to a placeholder site instead. User just uses a DNS resolver other than their ISPs such as Google’s or Cloudflare’s - easy, quick, free.
B) The ISP also has to block routing to IPs associated with the site. Unlikely, but easily circumvented by using a VPN so that your direct routing goes via elsewhere. Easy, quick, free or paid.
These blocks are common for sites a government deems illegal or undesirable. Nothing new here at a technical level.
Accessing the site is one thing but what about transferring money to/from?
By users or Polymarket?
If it’s the former, zero seconds with VPNs. For the latter, no idea.
That’s utterly ridiculous.
It takes at least 5 seconds to turn on a VPN and reload a page.
I see what you did there.
I hate how they’re supporting the fiction that this isn’t gambling by calling it a “prediction site”. It’s gambling, always has been.
This loophole (if we can even call it that because it‘s just stupid marketing) makes it even worse than regular gambling. It‘s unregulated and very easy to exploit even by other participants. Everything about this is illegal in pretty much any country no matter how you word it. It‘s actually insane how slow countries are to do something about those criminals.
This isn’t much different than google calling installing software “side loading”. All just lawyer speech to be able to bend and break the rules
JAILBREAKING SCUM
Literally just having access to your device you paid for…
Jaywalking scum!
Literally crossing the street as humans have done since the street was invented, ruined by cars taking over in the 1900s
I think the distinction is important. Gambling is random outcome. Prédiction means you could influence the outcome. Think of a terrorist betting on the timing of the next attack
If you’re influencing the outcome via some private mechanism that’s a crime and is in fact illegal (a little thing known as insider trading or cheating depending on how you go about it). So per your definition either you can’t influence the outcome in which case it’s gambling, or you can in which case it’s illegal and you’re committing a crime.
All that said I think the definition of gambling being truly random isn’t quite right. Gambling has always been about statistical outcomes because if it was truly random nobody would ever make any money off of it so nobody would waste their time. Remember the house always wins because they control the odds. These sites are just bookies in techbro clothing using marketing and legal loopholes to run illegal gambling sites.
I mean, it is both?
By that logic, all gambling is just prediction
how did you come to this conclusion? betting on scenarios that are purely random are just gambling.
Eh, it’s probably more effective to ban payment services from performing transactions. Doesn’t stop crypto currencies but it would still be 99% effective.
Polymarket agreed to stop offering its service in France in 2024. There is no non-crypto transaction to block for France.
While well-meaning this is a terrible idea and not how the Internet should work. Block their payments, make it illegal to operate, but don’t start letting any government decide who’s allowed on the Internet.
As is should be.
Based, but imo flawed - its setting yet another precedent that governments can block access to sites they deem “incorrect”. Take away their ability to make a profit, cut off their payment systems, but dont you dare try to regulate who is allowed on the internet
